Assignment:
Discuss the following:
1. The purpose of break-even analysis is to determine the number of units of a product to sell that will.
- equal total revenue with total cost
- be larger than total revenue compared to total cost
- be smaller than total revenue compared to total cost
- none of the above
2. The expected value of a random variable is computed by _____________ each possible value of the variable by its probability and ___________ these products.
- dividing, summing
- multiplying, summing
- dividing, subtracting
- multiplying, subtracting
1. The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise
- for the maximin criterion
- for the maximax criterion
- between the maximax and maximin criteria
- none of the above
2. ____________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ____________ moving averages.
- Longer-period / shorter-period
- Shorter-period / longer-period
- Longer-period / longer-period
- Shorter-period / shorter-period
3. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to _________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
1. Administrators at a university will charge students $150 to attend a seminar. It costs $3000 to reserve a room, hire an instructor, and bring in the equipment. Assume it costs $25 per student for the administrators to provide the course materials. How many students would have to register for the seminar for the university to break even?
2. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is more than 22.25 oz?
- 0.3413
- 0.5000
- 0.1915
- 0.3085
- 0.1587
Ann Tyler has come into an inheritance from her grandparents. She is attempting to decide between several investment alternatives. The return after one year is primarily dependent on the interest rate during next year. The rate is currently 7%, and she anticipates it will stay the same or go up or down by at most two points. The various investment alternatives plus their returns (in $10,000s) given the interest rate changes are shown in the following table:
Interest Rates
Investments 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Money market fund 2 3.1 4 4.3 5
Stock growth fund -3 -2 2.5 4 6
Bond fund 6 5 3 3 2
Government fund 4 3.6 3.2 3 2.8
Risk fund -9 -4.5 1.2 8.3 14.7
Savings bonds 3 3 3.2 3.4 3.5
1. Determine the best investment using the Maximax decision criterium.
- Money market fund
- Stock growth fund
- Bond fund
- Government fund
- Risk fund
- Savings bonds
2. Determine the best investment using the Maximin decision criterium.
- Money market fund
- Stock growth fund
- Bond fund
- Government fund
- Risk fund
- Savings bonds
3. Determine the best investment using the Hurwicz (alpha = 0.4) decision criterium.
- Money market fund
- Stock growth fund
- Bond fund
- Government fund
- Risk fund
- Savings bonds
4. Determine the best investment using the Equal Likelihood decision criterium.
- Money market fund
- Stock growth fund
- Bond fund
- Government fund
- Risk fund
- Savings bonds
1. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Minutes Relative Frequency
3 0.22
4 0.36
5 0.28
6 0.10
7 0.04
Using these random numbers 0.53; 0.65; 0.98; 0.94; 0.07; and 0.99 , simulate the drying time for 6 processes.
What was the mean drying time?
2. Recent past demand for product ZXT is given in the following table.
Month Actual Demand
February 20
March 22
April 33
May 35
June 31
July 48
August 41
Determine the forecasted demand for May, June, July August and September based on a three- month moving average. What is the average value of forecasts for those five months?