Problem:
Genesis Inc. (a U.S. firm) considers a foreign project where it expects to receive 10 million euros at the end of this year. It plans to hedge receivables of 10 million euros with a forward contract. Today, the spot rate of the euro is $1.20, while the one-year forward rate of the euro is presently $1.24, and the expected spot rate of the euro in one year is $1.19. The initial outlay is $7 million. Genesis has a required return of 18%.
There is a 20% chance that political problems will cause a reduction in foreign business, such that it would only receive 4 million euros at the end of one year. Determine the expected value of the net present value of this project.