Purpose - To provide a structured opportunity to consider and apply the concepts presented in this Module.
1. Submit the risk modelling spreadsheet which you have used to replicate the results of the two case studies provided as examples in this Module. This spreadsheet must have these features:
a. Text fields used to describe the risk being modelled.
b. Text fields used to define data entry requirements for each of the Risk parameters that are used in the creation of the model, eg. What makes up the Consequences? A space for estimating both the LLC and the LWC, etc.
c. Text fields or comments used to describe/explain the origin of numerical estimates included in numerical entries.
d. Comments to make it clear how probability has been estimated and to what the probability applies.
e. Text fields used to define data entry requirements for all parameters relevant to cost benefit analysis, including both data input and calculated value fields.
f. Text fields used to make the meaning (for probability) or units (all others) of all numerical entries explicit.
g. A separate sheet that reads needed values from the above for the purpose of drawing a risk diagram (with log scales of course) and allowing the total risk to be summed from the relevant data points along the risk diagram.
h. Numerical fields in which to enter values and/or in which to place values calculated from data entries for both the risk model and the cost benefit analysis - the latter reading values from the second (risk diagram) sheet.
2. Monte Carlo analysis
a. In your own words, describe how Monte Carlo analysis works (approx 500 words)
b. In your own words, explain your understanding of how Monte Carlo analysis can benefit a quantified risk model (approx 500 words)
c. Practically, how does a typical Monte Carlo analysis spreadsheet insert contribute to the management of uncertainty in the values used as inputs to a quantified risk model spreadsheet? (approx 500 words)
3. Specify the two risks you will use to develop your own quantified risk models.
a. The risks themselves needs to be properly defined. See what this means by reference to Module 1 and the lectures in this Module.
b. Provide an explanation of the overall strategy you believe is required to develop each model, eg. is there bulk data available to assist you? Will you need to make a theoretical estimate of a probability in the absence of experience data? What is the unit of Exposure that is relevant? Will your risk diagram be developed from the LLC or the LWC as a starting point?
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