a. Create a 4-period moving average forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast with alpha=0.2, and a linear trend forecast for your data.
b. Calculate the MSE and MAD for each.
c. Plot the original series, and each of the forecasts.
d. Create forecasts for 2014 using each of these three techniques. If you had to choose one of these, which would you choose and why?
e. Given your data, and this time period, would you prefer to try some other type of forecast, or modify the data in some way? (You must explain your answer for full credit.)
Attachment:- 1968625_1_State-QPI-2004-20132.xlsx