Shamrock oil owns a parcel of land that has the potential to be an underground oil field. It will cost $500,000 to drill for oil. If oil does exist on the land, shamrock will realize a payoff of $4,000,000 (not including drill cost). With current information, shamrock estimates that there is a 0.2 probability that oil is present on the site. Shamrock also has the option of selling the land as is for $400,000, without further information about the likelihood of oil being present. A third option is to perform geological test at the site, which would cost $100,000. There is a 30% chance that the test results will be positive, after which shamrock can sell the land for $650,000 or drill the land, with a 0.65 probability that oil exists. if the test results are negative, shamrock can sell the land for $50,000 or drill the land, with a 0.05 probability that oil does exists.
a) construct the appropriate decision tree to make the appropriate decision. Including the revised probabilities
b) fold back the decision tree. what is the final expected profit?
c) What is the expected value of sample information (EVSI)
d) Calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) e) what is the efficiency of sample information?