The Harley Davidson motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis-St. Paul wants to be able to forecast accurately the demand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. Form sales records, the dealers have accumulated the data in the following table for the past year.
|
Month
|
Motorcycle Sales
|
|
January
|
9
|
|
February
|
7
|
|
March
|
10
|
|
April
|
8
|
|
May
|
7
|
|
June
|
12
|
|
July
|
10
|
|
August
|
11
|
|
September
|
12
|
|
October
|
10
|
|
November
|
14
|
|
December
|
16
|
a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year)
b. Compute a five-month moving average forecast for June through January (of the next year).
c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January of the next year?