Compare versus historical volatility of underlying stock


Discuss the below:

Q1: Summary of options purchased at beginning of 4th quarter with 3 months to expiration (european style options)

position shares premium strike price
long calls 63,000 $20.45 $110
long puts 63,000 $13.15 $110






beginning  end


4th Quarter 4th Quarter
underlying stock price $111 $109

Assumptions when buying options:  expected fairly major movement in the stock price

Q1 Compare versus historical volatility of underlying stock (3RD QTR PRICES IN SHEET 2)

Q2 Does the historical data support the view of what the options were worth?

Q3 Do the prices of other call and put options trading at that time reflect the same level of volatility that was forecasted?

Q4 Use binomial pricing model and black-scholes to validate answers

Q5 Calculations in sheet 2 correct for volatility?

Additional information:

1 4th quarter option prices below

2 3rd Qtr volatility in sheet2

1 4th Quarter Option Prices






 

  CALLS
  PUTS
Options/Strike Expiration Vol Last Expiration Vol Last
100  
$18.60  
$6.36
105  
$15.75  

110  
$20.45  

115  
$11.04  
$13.61







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Basic Statistics: Compare versus historical volatility of underlying stock
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