Carl Jones is considering whether to invest in a newly formed investment fund. The fund’s investment objective is to acquire home mortgage securities at what it hopes will be bargain prices. The fund sponsor has suggested to James that the fund’s performance will hinge on how the national economy performs in the coming year. Specifically, he suggested the following possible outcomes:
State of the Economy Probability Fund Return
Rapid expansion and recovery 5% 100%
Modest growth 45% 35%
Continued recession 45% 5%
Falls into depression 5% –100%
Based on these potential outcomes, using EXCEL and SHOWING your work, what is your estimate of the expected rate of return from this investment opportunity?
Calculate the standard deviation.