Calculating expected number of deaths


Assignment:

Show the calculation for how the numbers in red where determined.

Using Table , calculate the expected number of deaths for each age and latency category, and then an overall standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for each latency group.To determine if 10 years latency is indeed needed to develop ASL, we split latency into the two categories: <10 years and 10+ years latency.  Follow-up was virtually complete.  Five cases of cancer were observed in the <10 year latency group and 35 cases were observed in the 10+ year latency group. Assuming a criterion of 5-years’ exposure, total person-years at-risk for disease in the actual cohort are shown by age in the following table for persons with less than and more than 10 years' latency.  Included for your use in calculating expected number of deaths per person-years at-risk in each age group are 1965 age-specific mortality rates for cancers of all sites in U.S. white males.

Table was constructed by a method analogous to Table 2, that is by adding up the person-years at risk for all 1294 workers with at least 5 years of exposure, regardless of latency.

    Table. Standardized Mortality Ratio for Cancer-Related Deaths

             Person-Years At-Risk for              Expected*
 Disease for Workers with                       Age Specific             Expected Number
> 5 Years Exposure and                        Cancer Mortality         of Cancer DeathsLatency of                                                                     Rate / 100,000 / yr    For Latency of                                                                                                 
Age     <10 years10+ years                        <10 years    10+ years

20-29              8444           38             13             1.10_____    0.005____

30-39              4619       3065             28              ________     ________   

40-49              2180       5668             91              ________     ________                    

50-59                508       2681           300               ________     ________
       
60-69                  40       1078           712               ________     ________

70-79                   0        171            1223             ________     ________       
  80+                    0           20           1710              _______     ________
   
Total expected deaths                                     ________         ________                                                                                       

Total observed deaths                   ___5____      ___35___                  

SMR                            ________     ________

SMR (O/E x 100)                    ________     ________           
* Expected deaths adjusted for cause and calendar year.                                                           

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Algebra: Calculating expected number of deaths
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