Assignment:
A company is considering what forecasting method to use for coming time periods. the company has used something of a qualitative (consensus-based) forecasting method in the past, and is wanting to know if a more formal, quantitative forecasting metod would be appropriate for them. consider the following data from recent time periods:
| Time period |
Forecast |
Actual demand |
|
| Three quarter |
225 |
230 |
|
| Two quarter |
240 |
270 |
|
| Last quarter |
275 |
295 |
|
| Last quarter |
You will determine |
? |
|
Briefly address each of the following
Discuss what method of forecasting you view to be most appropriate given the data above. Explain why you believe your choosen forecasting method to be most approriate.
Select an appropriate value for alpha, and calculate an exponential smoothing forecast for this quarter. Discuss the relatrionship between the alpha value that you selected and the forecast value that you calculated. In other words, if you had selected a lower value for alpha, how would the calculated value be different, and if you had selected a higher value for the alpha, how would the calculated value be different?
Assume that, at the end of this quarter, we could report that the demand for this quarter was actually 275 (just like last quarter). Would this information cause you to rethink the alpha value that is selected? if so, how would it impact the value that you would have selected for alpha?
Your answer must be typed, double-spaced, Times New Roman font (size 12), one-inch margins on all sides, APA format and also include references.