The ACME Umbrella Company is deciding between two different umbrella factories. Both factories will cost $500,000 to get started. However, the cash flows for each factory will depend on whether the next five years are rainier than average or sunnier than average. Factory A will have cash flows of $130,000 per year for the next five years if the weather is sunnier than average. But if it is rainier than average the cash flows will be $150,000 per year for the next five years. Factory B will have cash flows of $100,000 per year for the next five years if it is sunnier than average, but if it is rainier than average it will have cash flows of $200,000 per year. ACME has a cost of capital of 9%. Based on this information, calculate the following:
- Calculate the NPV for both factories and for both scenarios (rainy versus sunny). What is the range of NPV for each factory based on your scenario analysis?
- Based on your answer to a) above, do you think ACME should use the same discount rate of 9% for each factory? Or should they use a risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR)? If so, which factory should have a higher RADR?