A consulting firm submitted a a bid for a large research project. The firms management initially felt there was a 50/50 Experience indicates that on 75% of the successful bids and 40% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information.
a. Determine the prior probabilty that the bid will be successful (i.e. prior to the receiving the request for additional information.
b. Determine the conditional probablity of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimatley suceed.
c. Calculate a posterior probablity that the bid will be successful given that a request for additional information has be received.