Question: Dr. Carter Logue practices dentistry in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Logue tries hard to schedule appointments so that patients do not have to wait beyond their appointment time. His October 20 schedule is shown in the following table:
Unfortunately, not every patient arrives exactly on schedule. Also, some examinations take longer than planned, and some take less time than planned. Logue's experience dictates the following: 20% of the patients will be 20 minutes early, 10% of the patients will be 10 minutes early, 40% of the patients will be on time, 25% of the patients will be 10 minutes late, and 5% of the patients will be 20 minutes late. He further estimates that there is a 15% chance that an appointment will take 20% less time than planned, 50% chance it will take exactly the planned time, 25% chance it will take 20% more time than planned, and 10% chance it will take 40% more time than planned. Dr. Logue has to leave at 12:15 p.m. on October 20 to catch a flight to a dental convention in Rio de Janerio. Assuming that he is ready to start his workday at 9:30 a.m. and that patients are treated in order of their scheduled exam (even if one late patient arrives after an early one), will he be able to make the flight? Use N replications.