Applying the Value-at-Risk Method. You use today’s spot rate of the Brazilian real to forecast the spot rate of the real for one month ahead. Today’s spot rate is $.4558. Use the value-at-risk method to determine the maximum percentage loss of the Brazilian real over the next month based on a 95 percent confidence level. Use the spot exchange rates at the end of each of the last 6 months as shown below to conduct your analysis. Forecast the exchange rate that would exist under these conditions. ANSWER: End of Month Value of Brazilian real 1 $.4251 2 .4203 3 .4196 4 .4523 5 .4417 6 .4558
How do I find the Standard Deviation NOT using a spreadsheet, but by hand?