Question: Another mistaken poll. Prior to the mayoral election discussed in Exercise, the newspaper also conducted a poll. The paper surveyed a random sample of registered voters stratified by political party, age, sex, and area of residence. This poll predicted that Amabo would win the election with 52% of the vote. The newspaper was wrong: Amabo lost, getting only 46% of the vote. Do you think the newspaper's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.
Exercise: Mistaken poll. A local TV station conducted a "PulsePoll" about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to phone in their votes, with the results to be announced on the latenight news. Based on the phone calls, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with 52% of the vote. They were wrong: Amabo lost, getting only 46% of the vote. Do you think the station's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.