Assignment:
Pleas respond to the following discussion
Compare and contrast predictive analytics and prescriptive analytics. Provide examples in your answer.
Predictive analytics is also known as "forecasting", and its purpose is to learn what will happen in the future typically using quantitative mathematical models. Harrah's Cherokee Casino and Hotel implemented predictive analytics to forecast the customer demand for rooms based variables such as season of the year, day of the week, special events, and demand trends over time. Combining this data with the amount of money each customer spends at the casino enabled Harrah's to calculate when to book a room for a particular customer versus holding it for the possibility of booking it for a more valuable customer; furthermore, Harrah's was able to achieve 98.6% average occupancy rate 7 days a week January through November because of their predictive modeling system.
Prescriptive analytics calculates decision, outcome, and risk variables using mathematical models to determine whether or not to take a certain action. For example, American Airlines (AA) used "Should-Cost" modeling to determine how they should respond to request for quotes (RFQs) from full-truckload (FTL) suppliers. AA used sources such as interviews and Internet sources to create cost variables affecting FTL bids. Next, mutually exclusive, but collectively exhaustive, cost variables were chosen. Finally, decision tree software was used to calculate uncertainty. This resulted in much faster analysis of FTL bids coming into AA.
References
Sharda, R., Delen, D., Turban, E., Aronson, J. E., Liang, T., & King, D. (2015). Business Intelligence and Analytics: Systems for Decision Support (10th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson
D3a--Simulation
The simulation is a process of imitation a real-life or hypothetical situation on a computer to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the system. Simulation mirroring the functioning of systems, testing and evaluating the performance of the system prior to actual implementation. Also, it imitates every step and each interaction in a process to understand the impact and making decisions. Analysts and decision-makers usually make use simulation tools to accurately predict the performance new practices, policies before the implementation.
Simulations Process:
Simulation process varies situation to situation, the generic process of simulation mentioned below:
Describe the system or model intended to simulate
Develop the model
Test the model, compare the behavior of the actual system
Analyze and collect the data for testing the model
Run the simulation
Analyze the results and validate the simulation, use the learnings for the real system implementation
Example:
Simulation process is used across many platforms like Computer, Education, and training, User interactive systems, Clinical healthcare, Entertainment, Manufacturing, Finance, Flight, Robotics, Sports, Sales, Production, Weather, etc.,
Flight Simulation:
Flight simulators are the most vital feature in order to train the pilots in ground and the low risk of damages of aircraft and human life, instructors can able to concentrate more on trainees compare to On-Air, Simulator provides the greater financial benefits and also it helped analyze and conclude many critical situations and can able to evaluate the real-time situations like flight accidents.ex: Flight accident in Hudson river helped the aviation industry to evaluate the possible occurrences when the engine shutdowns.
D3b--Simulation
The simulation is the process of solving problem. The first step is identifying the problem. For example, there are lot of Asian people in US infected by Hepatitis B viral disease.
The next step is building up the simulation model. A mathematical model is created with combinations of control measures to combat Hepatitis B in Asian population.
The next step is validating the model. After evaluation, a combination of Markov and decision models are used as the model for profession of Hepatitis B.
The next step is designing and conduct the experiment. Blood tests to determine chronic infection and Hepatitis B vaccination for infected people are offered to people in China.
The next step is evaluating the experiment result. This model help China government design a catch up vaccination policy for children and adolescents. The result shows that for people under 19 years old got vaccination, the health outcomes are improved in the long run.
The last step is implementing the results.
The textbook discussed the disadvantages of simulation, but one thing I think important is the model is set up for a specific issue, so after spend lots of time and effort for building up the model and implement the experiment, they cannot be used to other issues. It is not cost efficiency.