Sally Clark Case: Sally Clark was a women in England who in 1999 was convicted of killing her two children. The first child's untimely death was put down to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). However, when two years later another seemingly healthy child suddenly died, Sally was accused of
murdering the two children. The thrust of the prosecutions argument hinged on the fact that SIDS, thankfully, is relatively rare. The odds of a randomly chosen baby, dying from SIDS is about 3 in 5000.
(a) If the two deaths are independent then what is the probability of having two children who die of SIDS?
(b) If 130 million babies are born worldwide each year, about how many will die from SIDS using the 3:5000 odds?
(c) If 50,000 mothers have another child after having a child die of SIDS about how many will have a second child die from SIDS assuming the two deaths are independent?
(d) Using you answer from part(c) how would you defend Sally in court?