How are you able to measure real probabilities
How are you able to measure real probabilities?
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In classical stochastic differential equation models it implies knowing the real drift rate, frequently denoted with µ for equities. It can be very hard, very harder than measuring volatility. Is this even possible to say whether we are in bear market or a bull? Frequently not! And you require to project forward, again still harder, and harder than also forecasting volatility.
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A stock whose value is now $44.75 is growing on average by 15 percent per annum. Its volatility is 22 percent. The interest rate is 4 percent. You need to value a call option along with a strike of $45, expiring in two months’ time. So, what can you do?
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