Probability-monte carlo simulation random number


The equipment installed group at globus enterprises is regarding to make the cost estimate to find out how much it will cost to install the back up generator at government laboratory facility.ver the years, this group has carried out more than 100 such installations and has developed the database reflecting past experience. Data on distribution of cost for design work, building effort and testing effort is provided in table1

 

Cheapest ($/%)

Usual ($/%)

Expensive($/%)

Design

9000/30

10000/40

12000/30

Build

60000/20

70000/60

80000/20

Test

18000/20

20000/50

24000/30

The data in the table picture the cost of an effort and the percentage of times this cost is achieved for example, 30% of the time ,design cost $9000;40% of the time it cost $10,000;30% of the time it cost $12,000

00

16

45

84

18

83

28

82

36

91

95

14

80

68

34

54

55

13

20

70

57

68

61

37

30

09

81

24

55

21

Two digit randowm numbers

Roughly determine the probability that project will cost moe than $105,000?

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Basic Statistics: Probability-monte carlo simulation random number
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