Computing probability of high demand changes


Assignment:

Elgard, Inc. is considering expanding the capacity of their store. Success of the decision depends on whether their customers accept the new line of products Elgard is evaluating. If the store expands and demand for the new line is high, the payoff will be $325, but if the demand is low the payoff will only be $35. If the store does not expand and demand for the new line is high, the payoff will be $150, but if demand is low the payoff will be $100.

The payoff table below summarizes the information given above.


States of Nature

Alternatives

High demand

Low demand

Expand

325

35

Do not expand

150

100




Perform sensitivity analysis for this problem:

a. Create a graph to show how the expected values of the two options change as the probability of high demand changes from 0 to 1. (Create only ONE graph.)

b. Interpret your graph.

Your answer must be typed, double-spaced, Times New Roman font (size 12), one-inch margins on all sides, APA format and also include references.

 

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Basic Statistics: Computing probability of high demand changes
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