Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
|
Quarter
|
Year 1
|
Year 2
|
Year 3
|
|
1
|
923
|
1112
|
1243
|
|
2
|
1056
|
1156
|
1301
|
|
3
|
1124
|
1124
|
1254
|
|
4
|
992
|
1078
|
1198
|
Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model developed in part b.
Compare the three-period moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?