--%>
Assignment Help - homework help

Components of time series

Name and elaborate the four components of time series in brief.

E

Expert

Verified

• TREND (SECULAR TREND):

Time series data would normally show an upward or downward trend over a period of time. A trend is a longterm movement in time series. They are generally gradual increases or decreases over a period of time and an example of an upward trend would be price increases over the years, and a downward trend would be decrease in sales over the years. The increase or decrease is fairly gradual and thus a smooth curve or straight line curve generally depicts the trend.

• CYCLICAL VARIATIONS (C):

These variations are not regular as seasonal variation, they are medium to long term deviations from the trend. Cyclical variations are recurrent upward or downward movements in a time series but the period of cycle is greater than a year. There are different cycles of varying in length and size. A business cycle is one of the most common forms and passes through stages.

• SEASONAL VARIATIONS (S):

Seasonal variations are fluctuations that are repeated periodically, they are short term fluctuations and occur periodically within a year. Major factors causing this repetition are weather conditions and customs of people.

• RANDOM (IRREGULAR) VARIATION (R):

These are fluctuations in time series that are short in duration, unpredictable occurrences that are erratic in nature and follow no regular pattern. They result due to unforeseen events such as droughts, strikes etc.

   Related Questions in Advanced Statistics

  • Q : Analysing the Probabilities 1. In the

    1. In the waning seconds of Superbowl XLVII, the Baltimore Ravens elected to take a safety rather than punt the ball. A sports statistician wishes to analyze the effect this decision had on the probability of winning the game. (a) Which two of the following probabilities would most help t

    		•
  • Q : Probability of winning game Monte Carlo

    Monte Carlo Simulation for Determining Probabilities 1. Determining the probability of winning at the game of craps is difficult to solve analytically. We will assume you are playing the `Pass Line.'  So here is how the game is played: The shooter rolls a pair of

    		•
  • Q : Variation what are the advantages and

    what are the advantages and disadvantages of seasonal variation

    		•
  • Q : Grouped Frequency Distributions Grouped

    Grouped Frequency Distributions: Guidelines for classes: A) There must be between 5 to 20 classes. B) The class width must be an odd number. This will assure that the class mid-points are integers rather than decimals. C) The classes should be mutually exclusive. This signifies that no data valu

    		•
  • Q : Find the cumulative distribution

    You must use the pre-formatted cover sheet when you hand in the assignment. Out full detailed solutions. Sloppy work will naturally receive a lower score. 1. Suppose at each step, a particle moving on sites labelled by integer has three choices: move one site to the right with pro

    		•
  • Q : Use the law of iterated expectation to

    Suppose we have a stick of length L. We break it once at some point X _

    Q : Calculate corresponding t value or s

    1)    Construct a 99% confidence interval for the population mean µ.   2)    At what significance level do the data provide good evidence that the average body temperature is

    		•
  • Q : Problem on layout A manufacturing

    A manufacturing facility consists of five departments, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. It produces four components having manufacturing product routings and production volumes indicated below.   1. Generate the from-to matrix and the interaction matrix. Use a

    		•
  • Q : Problem on Chebyshevs theorem 1. Prove

    1. Prove that the law of iterated expectations for continuous random variables.2. Prove that the bounds in Chebyshev's theorem cannot be improved upon. I.e., provide a distribution which satisfies the bounds exactly for k ≥1, show that it satisfies the

    		•
  • Q : True and False Statement Discuss the

    Discuss the following statements and explain why they are true or false: a)      Increasing the number of predictor variables will never decrease the R2 b)      Multicollinearity affects the int

    		•