--%>
Assignment Help - homework help

Probability on expected number of days

It doesn't rain often in Tucson. Yet, when it does, I want to be prepared. I have 2 umbrellas at home and 1 umbrella in my office. Before I leave my house, I check if it is raining. If it is, I take one of the umbrellas with me to work, where I would leave it. When I go back home, I check if it is raining. If it is, I take one of the umbrellas with me home; therefore, the number of umbrellas at my house and in my office changes with time. The probability of rain is 0.1 every time I leave either my office or my house. The event of rain is independent of location and what happened in the past. Find the expected number of days before I run out of umbrellas where I am and it is raining outside. Also find the probability that I am home when that happens.

E

Expert

Verified

The person has 2 umbrellas at home and 1 in office. Also the probability of raining is independent of other factors and is equal to 0.1.

Now let us find the probability distribution of
X: Number of days before he running out of umbrellas.

Now X can take values from 0,1,2,3,..

Let us find the probability X=0, Now since he have 2 umbrellas at home and one at office, this probability will be zero.

Now let us find the probability x=1, now here we are interested in finding the probability that he runs without umbrella on second day, this will happen in following manner.

When he will go office there is no rain, so probability is 0.9, now on returning there is rain with prob 0.1 now on second day leaving office there is no raining with 0.9 and at the time of return it rains with 0.1

Hence total probability is .9*.1*.9*.1

Now let us find the probability x=2, now here we are interested in finding the probability that he runs without umbrella on second day, this will happen in following manner.

This probability will be .1*.9*.1*.9*.1  (The probabilities are arranged according to event)
Now let us find the probability x=3, now here we are interested in finding the probability that he runs without umbrella on second day, this will happen in following manner.

The probability is .9*.1*.1*.1*.9*.1

The probability that more x ≥ 4 will be 1 minus all these probabilities

1053_probability.jpg

Hence the expected number of days is 3.97,

Means on an average more than 3 days required to run without umbrella.

   Related Questions in Advanced Statistics

  • Q : Analysing the Probabilities 1. In the

    1. In the waning seconds of Superbowl XLVII, the Baltimore Ravens elected to take a safety rather than punt the ball. A sports statistician wishes to analyze the effect this decision had on the probability of winning the game. (a) Which two of the following probabilities would most help t

    		•
  • Q : Calculate confidence interval A nurse

    A nurse anesthetist was experimenting with the use of nitronox as an anesthetic in the treatment of children's fractures of the arm.  She treated 50 children and found that the mean treatment time (in minutes) was 26.26 minutes with a sample standard deviation of

    		•
  • Q : Correlation Define the term Correlation

    Define the term Correlation and describe Correlation formula in brief.

    		•
  • Q : Pearsons correlation coefficient The

    The table below illustrates the relationship between two variable X and Y. A

    		•
  • Q : Probability of winning game Monte Carlo

    Monte Carlo Simulation for Determining Probabilities 1. Determining the probability of winning at the game of craps is difficult to solve analytically. We will assume you are playing the `Pass Line.'  So here is how the game is played: The shooter rolls a pair of

    		•
  • Q : How you would use randomization in

    The design of instrument controls affects how easily people can use them. An investigator used 25 students who were right-handed to determine whether right-handed subjects preferred right-handed threaded knobs. He had two machines that differed only in that one had a

    		•
  • Q : Problem on income probability Kramer

    Kramer spends all of his income  $270  on two products, soup (S) and on golf balls (G). He always bought 2 golf balls for every 1 cup of soup he consumes. He acquires no additional utility from the other cup of soup unless he as well gets 2 more golf balls a

    		•
  • Q : Analyse the statistics of the data

    Assigment Question Select any two manufacturing companies and formulate the cost and revenue functions of the companies. analyse the statistics of the data and then sketch the functions and determine their breakeven points. (Note: You are required to interview the production and sales manag

    		•
  • Q : Probability of signaling Quality

    Quality control: when the output of a production process is stable at an acceptable standard, it is said to be "in control?. Suppose that a production process has been in control for some time and that the proportion of defectives has been 0.5. as a means of monitorin

    		•
  • Q : Find the cumulative distribution

    You must use the pre-formatted cover sheet when you hand in the assignment. Out full detailed solutions. Sloppy work will naturally receive a lower score. 1. Suppose at each step, a particle moving on sites labelled by integer has three choices: move one site to the right with pro

    		•