Sensitivity Analysis
Consider a project to supply Detroit with 25,000 tons of machine screws annually for automobile production. You will need an initial $2,400,000 investment in threading equipment to get the project started; the project will last for five years. The accounting department estimates that annual fixed costs will be $800,000 and that variable costs should be $200 per ton; accounting will depreciate the initial fixed asset investment straight-line to zero over the five-year project life. It also estimates a salvage value of $440,000 after dismantling costs. The marketing department estimates that the automakers will let the contract at a selling price of $300 per ton. The engineering department estimates you will need an initial net working capital investment of $240,000. You require a 16 percent return and face a marginal tax rate of 38 percent on this project.
a. Suppose you're confident about your own projections, but you're a little unsure about Detroit's actual machine screw requirement. What is the sensitivity of the project OCF to changes in the quantity supplied? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your final answer to 2 decimal places. (e.g., 32.16))
ΔOCF/ΔQ $
b. What is the sensitivity of NPV to changes in quantity supplied? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your final answer to 2 decimal places. (e.g., 32.16))
ΔNPV/ΔQ $
c. Given the sensitivity number you calculated, what is the minimum level of output below which you wouldn't want to operate? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your final answer to the nearest whole number.)
Minimum level of output