1) A) In the referendum on Scottish independence a survey finds that 45% will vote yes while 55% will vote no. On the day, if 92% of yes voters turnout to vote while 75% of no voters turnout and vote, who will win?
B) In the same referendum it is found that yes voters are 1% likely to accidentally spoil their ballots, while no voters were 3% likely. Given a spoiled ballot sheet what is the probability it came from a no voter?
2) If a dice is rolled 30 times, use Bernoulli (n, p) to get the probability of getting two sixes. How does the answer compare to the approximation Poisson(5) with x = 2? Which parameter, when changed would allow for a more accurate result?