Manipulating the probabilities to encourage winning


Poker is back. It is so popular that the internet is loaded with on-line poker sites. Johnny C. is a poker enthusiast who believes that a certain on-line site is manipulating the probabilities to encourage winning. He has recorded the results of 3 months of playing with the accepted probabilities for each hand, n = 2,996.

Hand 1 pair 2 pair 3 of a kind straight flush full house other
probability 0.4425 0.0475 0.0211 0.0039 0.0020 0.0014 0.4816
Number of hands 1,309 140 59 13 5 7 1,463
Expected Values






  1. Test Johnny C's claim that the on-line games do not follow the accepted probabilities with ? = .005.

  2. There are many other poker hands that were lumped into the "Other" category ( IE: Royal Flush, probability of 0.000015391). Why did Johnny C. have to place these hands into one category?

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Basic Statistics: Manipulating the probabilities to encourage winning
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