Problem 1: Please use the following data in MS Excel to answer the below questions (no need to send Excel file).
|
Year
|
Product X Share(%)
|
|
1
|
6.5
|
|
2
|
5.6
|
|
3
|
5.3
|
|
4
|
5.3
|
|
5
|
5.3
|
|
6
|
6.2
|
|
7
|
8.3
|
a) What is the forecast for the 8th year based on a exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.85 (use 6.0 as the first year’s forecast)?
b) What is the forecast for the 8th year based on a exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.6 (use 6.0 as the first year’s forecast)?
c) What is the forecast for the 8th year using regression?
d) What is the value of MAPE for exponential smoothing method from (other question: alpha = 0.85)?
e) What is the value of MAPE for regression?
f) Based on MAPE, which method is better?
(i) Exponential Smoothing (from 3a)
(ii) Regression
Problem 2: Please use the following data in MS Excel to answer the below questions (no need to send Excel file).
|
Month
|
Competitor's
Share of Voice (%)
|
|
1
|
5.4
|
|
2
|
5.8
|
|
3
|
5.3
|
|
4
|
5.7
|
|
5
|
5.3
|
|
6
|
5.0
|
|
7
|
6.4
|
a) What is the forecast for the 8th month based on a naïve approach?
b) What is the forecast for the 8th month based on 4-month simple moving average?
c) What is the forecast for the 8th month based on 3-month weighted moving average?
Weights are 0.5 (most recent), 0.35, and 0.15 (most distant):