Assignment:
QUESTION- Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
A ship builder is preparing a plan of a luxury yacht to be fitted with a lot of emerging and exotic technologies for a billionaire client. The ship builder comes up with a project structure and time estimates in months for different building activities as in the table below.
|
Activity
|
Immediate
Predecessors
|
Optimistic
Time (a)
|
Probable
Time (m)
|
Pessimistic
Time (b)
|
Mean Time (a+4m+b)/6
|
Variance (b-a)2/36
|
|
A
|
-
|
3.0
|
5.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
|
B
|
A
|
2.0
|
5.0
|
6.5
|
|
|
|
C
|
A
|
4.5
|
8.0
|
12.0
|
|
|
|
D
|
B, C
|
2.5
|
7.0
|
10.0
|
|
|
|
E
|
D
|
1.5
|
4.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
|
F
|
D
|
3.5
|
7.5
|
9.5
|
|
|
|
G
|
E, F
|
1.5
|
6.0
|
10.5
|
|
|
|
H
|
G
|
2.0
|
6.5
|
8.5
|
|
|
(a) Based on the table, draw a project network in MS PowerPoint and make a printout.
(b) Determine the expected/mean time and time variance for each activity. Use 5 decimals.
(c) Find all possible paths through the network with their corresponding expected path times.
(d) Determine the critical path. Give equations for and find the expected completion time and time variance of the whole project. Make sure to have the time unit.
(e) The billionaire client is mainly concerned with the yacht completion time and willing to pay any necessary building cost. The client asks the ship builder about the probability of finishing the yacht in 40 months if work begins immediately. What would be the answer?
Hint: To answer part (e), calculate a z-value and refer to some probability lookups
|
z*
|
0.00000
|
0.65836
|
0.87781
|
1.09726
|
1.31671
|
|
NORM.S.DIST(z*,1)
|
0.50000
|
0.74485
|
0.80998
|
0.86374
|
0.90603
|