Calculate the exponential and adjusted exponential smoothing forecast and linear trend forecasting. Compare it by MAD and E.
The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball team as well as ice hockey teams that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the subsequent occupancy rates for the past 9 years since the coliseum opened:
|
Year
|
Occupancy Rate (%)
|
|
1
|
83
|
|
2
|
78
|
|
3
|
75
|
|
4
|
81
|
|
5
|
86
|
|
6
|
85
|
|
7
|
89
|
|
8
|
90
|
|
9
|
86
|
Calculate an exponential smoothing forecast with a=.20 an adjusted exponential smoothing prediction with a=.20 and b=.20 and a linear trend forecast. Compare the three forecasts expending MAD and average error (E) and indicate which seems to be most accurate.