Question:
Why might it be difficult for the Fed to formally adopt inflation targeting? Would inflation targeting be a good policy for the Fed in the present economic environment?
Answer:
The most important part of the inflation targeting debate is about the optimal level of inflation. While many people believe that it should be in the range of 2%, it is difficult to ascertain the actual optimal level. Again, if the rate is fixed to 2%, then the Fed will have limited scope for a cut back in the interest rates, which might be required periodically to boost investment. Another case in point is that empirical evidence has suggested that US has experienced lowest level of unemployment when the inflation rate was in the range of 3-5%. Another problem is that the inflation targeting itself might not be efficient, asset price and hence the asset market control will also become important if the goals of inflation targeting are to be realized. In the present economic scenario, when the economy needs stimulus, and investment levels are quite low with high level of unemployment, inflation targeting does not seem to be a good policy measure. There is a need for an increase in the aggregate demand, which if materializes, will lead to an increase in inflation. And if inflation targeting is in place, the interest rates will have to be hiked, which will hamper recovery.